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杨超, 刘茜, 宋维明, 黄宏炜. 中国木质林产品出口潜力研究[J]. 北京林业大学学报(社会科学版), 2022, 21(1): 1-8. DOI: 10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021252
引用本文: 杨超, 刘茜, 宋维明, 黄宏炜. 中国木质林产品出口潜力研究[J]. 北京林业大学学报(社会科学版), 2022, 21(1): 1-8. DOI: 10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021252
Yang Chao, Liu Xi, Song Weiming, Huang Hongwei. Export Potential of China's Wood Forest Products under the Background of Dual Circulation Development Pattern[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University (Social Science), 2022, 21(1): 1-8. DOI: 10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021252
Citation: Yang Chao, Liu Xi, Song Weiming, Huang Hongwei. Export Potential of China's Wood Forest Products under the Background of Dual Circulation Development Pattern[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University (Social Science), 2022, 21(1): 1-8. DOI: 10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021252

中国木质林产品出口潜力研究

Export Potential of China's Wood Forest Products under the Background of Dual Circulation Development Pattern

  • 摘要: 木质林产品作为最具代表性的绿色可持续利用产品,在我国对外绿色经贸合作中具有重要的象征性意义。利用2010—2019年贸易数据分析中国木质林产品出口格局与趋势,运用贸易潜力模型测算并对比分析中国对传统市场(欧美国家)与新兴市场(“一带一路”沿线国家)的出口潜力。研究发现:①欧美发达国家作为传统出口目的地,出口潜力已开发殆尽;②潜力巨大型市场以中东欧国家居多,潜力开拓型市场以西亚国家为主;③一些被模型判定为“潜力再造型市场”的国家,如越南、马来西亚、柬埔寨、肯尼亚等,在供给端具有丰富的森林资源和较为廉价的劳动力,在需求端也具有巨大的国内市场,一旦其国内木材加工生产能力形成规模,可能对中国的同类木质林产品出口造成冲击。

     

    Abstract: As a sustainably utilized product, wood forest products play an important symbolic role in China's green economic and trade cooperation with foreign countries. In this paper, the trade data from 2010 to 2019 were used to analyze the pattern and trend of China's wood forest products export, and the trade potential model was used to calculate and compare the export potential of China to traditional markets (European and American countries) and emerging markets (countries along the Belt and Road). The results show that: ①as traditional export destinations, the export potential of developed countries in Europe and America has been fully developed; ②the market with great potential is mainly in central and eastern European countries, and the market with pioneering potential is mainly in western Asian countries; ③some countries belong to "the market with potential to shape", such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Kenya, which on the supply side have rich forest resources and cheap labor, while on the demand side also have a huge domestic market, and will have impact on China's export of the same kind of wood forest products once their domestic wood processing production capacity forms scale.

     

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