The Impact of China's Waste Paper Import Ban on the Paper Industry: Based on the Global Forest Products Model

Based on China's ban on the import of waste paper, two scenarios are set up in the Global Forest Products Model: the baseline scenario and the scenario of banning the import of waste paper. Both scenarios integrate the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on the global economy and trade. This paper simulates and analyzes the impact of China's ban on importing waste paper from 2021 to 2030. The results show that, in the first place, the ban will lead to a shortage of domestic waste paper, increase the recycling of waste paper and improve the recovery rate of waste paper. Second, the fiber raw material structure of the paper will change, which is reflected in the increase of the proportion of wood pulp and other fiber pulp and the decrease of the proportion of waste pulp. Third, China's import of paper and paperboard will increase, and its output, consumption and export will decline. Fourth, the global waste paper trade market will be impacted and the volume of waste paper trade will decline. Based on the results, this paper puts forward some suggestions onbanning the import of waste paper in the paper industry.