Fluctuation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of China's Wood Forest Products Import

China is a major trading country of wood forest products in the world. The large fluctuation of wood forest products imports will bring adverse effects on domestic and inter national forest products markets and the development of domestic forest products industry. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of China's wood forest products import in order to strengthen the import management of wood forest products and promote the healthy development of China's wood forest products import trade. Based on the data of China's import trade of wood forest products from 1992 to 2020, this paper analyzes the fluctuation cycle and characteristics of wood forest products, constructs an ARDL model to analyze the factors influencing China's import trade fluctuation of woody forest products from the perspective of demand and supply, so as to provide basis for making corresponding policies and taking reasonable measures. The results show that the fluctuation of China's wood forest products import from 1992 to 2020 presents eight cycles, with each cycle length about three years. The expansion ability of China's wood forest products import trade is obviously weakened, but the overall growth level is improving, and the anti-recession ability and stability of fluctuation are enhanced. The fluctuation of demand side construction output value, supply side timber output, exchange rate and log import price have significant effects on the fluctuation of China's wood forest products import trade in the long and short term.