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人工智能与城乡共同富裕基于中国267个城市面板数据的实证研究

Artificial Intelligence and Rural-Urban Common Prosperity: An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data of 267 Cities in China

  • 摘要: 明确人工智能发展对城乡共同富裕的影响机制是促进城乡协调发展、实现城乡共同富裕的关键所在。本文基于2011―2022年中国267个地级及以上城市的面板数据,采用中介效应模型、调节效应模型和面板门槛模型等,实证分析了人工智能对城乡共同富裕的影响及作用机制。研究发现:人工智能有利于提高农村居民收入,但也会进一步扩大城乡收入差距,在一定程度上影响城乡共同富裕的实现;人工智能对城乡共同富裕的影响在不同区域和城市规模下存在显著差异;人工智能可通过城镇化、产业结构升级等中介变量影响城乡共同富裕;数字基础设施建设增强了人工智能对农村居民收入的正向作用,抑制了人工智能对城乡收入差距的正向作用;随着人口老龄化程度加剧,人工智能对农村居民可支配收入存在门槛效应,且呈现出先减后增的“V”型趋势。

     

    Abstract: Clarifying the impact mechanism of artificial intelligence (AI) development on rural-urban common prosperity is crucial for promoting coordinated rural-urban development and achieving rural-urban common prosperity. Based on the panel data of 267 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2011 to 2022, this paper employs mediating effect models, moderating effect models, and panel threshold models to empirically analyze the impact and mechanisms of AI on rural-urban common prosperity. The key findings are as follows: (1) AI contributes to increasing rural residents' income but it may also exacerbate the urban-rural income gap, thus affecting the realization of rural-urban common prosperity; (2) the impact of AI on rural-urban common prosperity varies significantly across different regions and city sizes; (3) AI influences rural-urban common prosperity through mediating variables such as urbanization and industrial structure upgrading; (4) the construction of digital infrastructure enhances the positive impact of AI on rural residents' income while inhibiting the positive effect of AI on the urban-rural income gap; (5) with the aging of the population, AI's effect on rural residents' disposable income exhibits a threshold effect, showing a "V"-shaped trend of initially decreasing and then increasing.

     

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