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农林生物质发电商在CCER市场中的交易决策研究

A Study of Trading Decisions of Agroforestry Biomass Power Generators in CCER Market

  • 摘要: CCER市场重启为发电商带来了新的收益渠道和履约选择。本文在此背景下,构建了CCER市场中农林生物质发电商和传统能源发电商交易决策的演化博弈模型,并通过系统动力学方法模拟交易决策的演化过程,分析可再生能源补贴退出方式、碳排放权交易制罚款金额、可再生能源配额比例和CCER抵扣比例等关键政策改变对发电商交易决策的影响。研究表明:农林生物质发电商和传统能源发电商都趋向于参与CCER交易。相比于出售绿证,出售CCER的农林生物质发电商会获得更多收益,提前摆脱退补贴带来的负面影响;补贴退出会增加农林生物质发电商在CCER市场中的交易意愿,缩短补贴年限的退出方式更有利于提高发电商盈利能力;罚款金额上涨会增加传统能源发电商购买CCER的意愿,但过高的罚款金额会破坏CCER市场均衡。本研究有助于完善我国绿证和CCER市场衔接政策,促进农林生物质发电产业的健康发展。

     

    Abstract: The re-launch of CCER market brings new revenue channels and compliance options for power generators. In this context, an evolutionary game model of the trading decision of agroforestry biomass power generators and traditional energy power generators in the CCER market was constructed. The evolution and the influence of the key policy changes, such as the exit method of renewable energy subsidies, the fine amount of the carbon emission trading system, the proportion of renewable energy quotas, and the CCER offset ratio, on the trading decision of power generators was simulated through the system dynamics method. The research shows that: Both agroforestry biomass power generators and conventional energy generators tend to participate in CCER trading. Compared to selling green certificates, selling CCERs increases the revenues of r agroforestry biomass power generators and allows them to get rid of the negative impacts of subsidy withdrawal in earlier time. Subsidy withdrawal increases the trading willingness of agroforestry biomass power generators, and the withdrawal method of shortening the subsidy period is more conducive to increasing the profitability of agroforestry biomass power generators. Rising fines increases the willingness of traditional energy power generators to buy CCERs, but excessive fines may break the equilibrium of the CCER market. This research will contribute to the improvement of China's green certificate and CCER market convergence policy and promote the sustainable development of the agroforestry biomass power generation industry.

     

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