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数字技术发展、产业生态化与出口贸易增长基于中国省级面板数据的经验证据

Development of Digital Technology, Industrial Ecologization and Export Trade Growth: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

  • 摘要: 数字化和绿色化是当今世界经济社会发展转型的两大趋势,利用数字技术提质增效促进出口,利用数字技术赋能产业生态化以绿色发展带动出口,对出口贸易的促稳提质具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文利用我国30个省份2012—2022年的面板数据,实证分析了数字技术发展对出口贸易的影响以及产业生态化在其中的中介作用。结果表明:数字技术发展对出口贸易有显著的积极促进作用,但存在与就业数量的内在矛盾;数字技术发展对出口贸易的影响存在区域异质性和产品异质性,在西部地区表现突出,在东部地区边际效应较低,在中部地区不显著,对工业制成品影响显著,对初级产品作用较小,对高技术产品不显著;数字技术发展可以通过赋能产业生态化进而对出口产生积极影响,是促进出口的有效途径,但数字技术发展在促进产业生态化方面作用还不够强。研究结果为加快和优化数字基础设施建设、引导传统产业数字化转型、利用数字技术赋能产业生态化促进出口贸易持续发展和绿色发展提供了路径参考。

     

    Abstract: Digitization and green transition represent two pivotal trends in the contemporary global economic and social transformation. Leveraging digital technology to enhance quality and efficiency for export promotion, and empowering industrial ecologization through digital technology to foster green development and thereby drive exports, hold significant theoretical and practical implications for achieving stability and quality in export trade. Building upon an analysis of the underlying impact mechanism, this paper employs panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning 2012 to 2022 to empirically investigate the influence of digital technology development on export trade, as well as the mediating role of industrial ecologization. The findings reveal that digital technology development exerts a significantly positive effect on export trade, yet an inherent tension exists with the quantity of employment. The impact of digital technology development on export trade demonstrates regional and product heterogeneity: it is most pronounced in the western region, exhibits a lower marginal effect in the eastern region, and is statistically insignificant in the central region. Furthermore, it has a significant impact on the export of industrial manufactured products, a modest effect on primary products, and no discernible impact on high-tech products. The study also finds that digital technology development can positively influence exports by empowering industrial ecologization, presenting an effective pathway for export promotion. However, the capacity of digital technology development to foster industrial ecologization is not yet sufficiently robust. The research outcomes offer valuable insights for accelerating and optimizing digital infrastructure construction, guiding the digital transformation of traditional industries, and harnessing digital technology to empower industrial ecologization, thereby promoting the sustainable development of import and export trade and green development.

     

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