高级检索

基于风险区划的茶叶综合气象指数保险研究以浙江松阳为例

Research on Comprehensive Weather Index Insurance based on Risk Zoning for Tea : Taking Songyang County, Zhejiang Province as an Example

  • 摘要: 气象指数保险是解决传统农业保险运行成本高、道德风险大等问题的重要金融创新工具,而精确厘定保险费率和风险区划是合理设计气象指数保险的基础。选取对春茶产量影响较大的低温霜冻和连阴雨作为保险设计的气象致灾因素,基于浙江省松阳县1998—2023年气象数据和春茶产量面积数据,计算茶叶气象产量减产率,建立减产率与多气象因素之间的关系;利用茶叶减产率历史数据,运用参数模型法拟合得到各乡镇茶叶减产的最优分布模型,计算不同免赔率的纯费率;基于致灾因子危险性、承灾体脆弱性和抗灾性构建综合风险指数进行风险区划,对保险纯费率进行优化,进而设计茶叶综合气象指数保险方案。松阳县各乡镇茶叶气象减产率分布函数不同,从综合风险指数来看,赤寿乡、樟溪乡茶叶种植密度大、暴露率高,综合风险指数高,风险优化系数大;松阳县茶叶种植风险整体上呈现出东北地区高、西南地区低的空间分布;当免赔率为5%、10%、15%时,松阳县各乡镇优化调整后的平均纯费率分别为10.22%、9.47%、8.47%。不同乡镇茶叶种植风险不同,有必要根据修正后的保险纯费率差异化设计气象指数保险合约,实现茶叶气象指数保险的健康发展。

     

    Abstract: Meteorological index insurance is an innovative financial instrument which is effective to address the high operating costs and serious moral hazard of traditional agricultural insurance, and accurate determination of insurance rate and risk division is the basis for reasonable design of meteorological index insurance. First, this paper selected the low-temperature frost and continuous cloudy rain, which have a great impact on the yield of spring tea, as the meteorological disaster factors for the insurance design. Based on the meteorological data and spring tea yield data from 1998-2023 of each township in Songyang County, Zhejiang Province, the meteorological yield reduction rate of tea was calculated, and the relationship between yield reduction rate and multiple meteorological factors was established. Next, this paper used historical data on tea yield reduction rates to fit the optimal distribution model for each township using the parametric model method to calculate insurance rates for different deductibles. Finally, based on the hazard factors, vulnerability of hazard-bearers and disaster resistance, the comprehensive risk index was constructed to carry out risk zoning and to optimize the pure insurance rate, and then the comprehensive meteorological index insurance plan of tea was designed. The results show that the distribution function of tea meteorological yield reduction rate is different in each township in Songyang County. From the perspective of comprehensive risk index, the comprehensive risk index is high and the risk optimization coefficient is large in Chishou township and Zhangxi township because of high tea planting density and high exposure rate. The overall risk of tea planting in Songyang County presents a spatial distribution of high risks in the northeast and low risks in the southwest. When the deductible rate are 5%, 10% and 15%, the average rate of each township after optimization in Songyang County are 10.22%, 9.47% and 8.47% respectively. The risks of tea planting in different townships are different, so it is necessary to design meteorological index insurance contract according to the revised pure premium rate, so as to realize the healthy development of tea meteorological index insurance.

     

/

返回文章
返回