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什么决定了大熊猫种群的保护效果?基于QCA方法的组态效应研究

What Determines the Conservation Effectiveness of Giant Panda Populations? A Study of Configurational Effects Based on QCA

  • 摘要: 在生态文明建设与国家公园体制改革的背景下,大熊猫保护已由单一要素恢复转向“生态—制度—社会”多维互动治理的现状。本研究基于社会-生态系统(SES)理论,以49个分布县为样本,运用模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)方法解析协同驱动保护成效的条件组态路径。研究发现:①栖息地总面积是实现高保护成效的唯一核心条件,构成了物种存续不可或缺的结构性基础。②存在三条差异化驱动路径,一是“低压-政府支撑型”,在低开发压力下依托基础财政投入与生态本底维持生存;二是“制度兼容型”,在经济活跃区利用高生态补偿与廊道建设平衡人地冲突;三是“综合治理型”,依托全要素高强度投入与严格管控实现最优绩效。

     

    Abstract: Under the context of ecological civilization construction and the reform of the national park system, giant panda conservation has shifted from single-factor recovery toward multi-dimensional interactive governance involving ecological, institutional, and social dimensions. Based on the Social-Ecological Systems (SES) framework, this study takes 49 distribution counties as samples and employs fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to identify the configurational pathways that synergistically drive conservation effectiveness. The findings reveal: ① Total habitat area serves as the sole core condition for achieving high conservation effectiveness, representing an indispensable structural foundation for species persistence. ② Three distinct pathways lead to successful conservation: the “Low Pressure–Government Support” type, which relies on basic fiscal investment and favorable ecological endowments under low development pressure; the “Institutional Compatibility” type, which balances human–land conflicts in economically active regions through high ecological compensation and corridor construction; and the “Comprehensive Governance” type, which achieves optimal performance through high-intensity input across all dimensions coupled with strict management.

     

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