Impact of Export Technology Complexity on Carbon Emissions of Forestry Industry in China

Given the longstanding issues with export product quality and technical structure in China's forestry industry, examining the impact of export technological complexity on carbon emissions is essential for achieving carbon reduction goals. To this end, this study first applies the Hausmann model to calculate the export technological complexity of China's forestry industry and its sub-sectors from 2011 to 2020, using this index to assess the industry's export structure. Next, the study employs the methods outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to estimate carbon emissions specific to China's forestry industry. Finally, a random effects model is constructed to conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between export technological complexity, its effects, and carbon emissions. The results indicate that China's forestry industry exhibits low export technological complexity with slow improvements, while the total carbon emissions of the industry are substantial, particularly in the paper and paper products sub-sector. Although increasing the export technological complexity in China's forestry industry negatively impacts carbon reduction, the scale effect, structural effect, technological effect, and FDI effect generated by this complexity have significant positive effects on carbon reduction. Based on these findings, the following recommendations are proposed: Continuously adjust the industry structure of the forestry sector, enhance technical content, and promote the growth of export technological complexity; Establish a carbon trade and reduction mechanism for forestry products, including carbon quotas and carbon tariffs; Improve the structure of industry inputs and leverage technological progress to enhance energy efficiency.