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中国对“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家出口贸易实证分析——以林产品为例

Empirical Analysis of Export Trade of China to the Countries along the Maritime Silk Road: Taking Forest Product as Study Case

  • 摘要: “海上丝绸之路”沿线国家的森林资源丰富, 与我国需求结构相似, 加强中国与其林产品贸易往来, 能够改善目前我国林产品贸易饱受金融危机、贸易壁垒和政治因素影响的状况。因此, 探究我国与“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家间林产品的贸易现状及影响因素具有重要意义。运用三维引力模型, 选取2002—2015年“海上丝绸之路”沿线具有代表性的国家(如越南、马来西亚等)的相关数据, 以林产品为例, 研究中国对“海上丝绸之路”国家出口贸易的影响因素。研究发现:贸易双方经济规模、汇率、距离和贸易壁垒等因素对我国与“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家林产品出口有显著影响; 越南、马来西亚、埃及的进口效应显著, 印度、老挝则不明显。提出了加强与潜在进口需求大的国家的贸易、加大对进口效应大的国家的贸易支持力度、完善与“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家的金融市场等政策建议。

     

    Abstract: Countries along the Maritime Silk Road are rich in forest resources, and their demand structure of forest products is similar to China's. Therefore, strengthening bilateral trade of forest products may improve the situation influenced by financial crisis, trade barriers and political factors in forest product trade. Thus it is of significance to explore the current situation and influencing factors of forest product trade between China and countries along the Maritime Silk Road. Based on the three-way gravity model, selecting the relevant data from representative countries(Vietnam, Malaysia, etc.) along the Maritime Silk Road during 2002-2015 and taking forest product as study case, this paper investigated the influencing factors of export trade of China to the countries along the Maritime Silk Road. The results revealed that the following elements impacted the export of China to the countries along the Maritime Silk Road: economic scales of two sides of trade, the exchange rate, distance between two countries, and trade barriers. In addition, the import intends in Vietnam, Malaysia and Egypt were strong, however, not so in India and Laos. Therefore, the suggestions are proposed as such: enhancing the trade with the countries with potential import demand, increasing the supports to the countries with strong import intend, and improving the financial markets with the countries along the Maritime Silk Road.

     

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