京津风沙源治理工程对农村劳动力转移的影响
The Impact of Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control Project on Rural Labor Transfer
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摘要: 选取2005—2015年京津风沙源治理工程区73户连续样本户的面板数据, 在屏蔽社会经济发展和城镇化进程的影响下, 探索了京津风沙源治理工程在农村劳动力转移方面的净效应。首先, 建立面板数据模型, 筛选工程监测指标中对农村劳动力转移有显著影响的变量, 并分析工程对农村劳动力转移的影响。其次, 在回归模型所得结果的基础上, 选取模型中显著的解释变量, 并引入地区经济变量作为协变量, 进一步采用倾向得分匹配法得到了工程在农村劳动力转移方面的净效应, 并对比工程两期差异。分析发现, 京津工程对农村劳动力转移确实存在正向作用, 且工程从一期到二期净效应增加了0.9%, 说明随着京津工程的逐步深入, 工程区的社会经济效益会愈加明显。最后, 提出了相应的政策建议。Abstract: This paper explores the net effect of the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control Project on rural labor transfer while excluding the influence of economy development and urbanization process by using the balanced panel data about 73 consecutive samples in the year of 2005 to 2015. Firstly, this paper filters the significant variables for rural labor transfer in the project monitoring through the panel data model, and then preliminarily analyzes the effect of the project on rural labor transfer. Secondly, based on the regression model's results, this paper selects the significant explanatory variables in the model and the local economic variable as covariant, and gets the net effect of the project on rural labor transfer using the method of propensity score matching. Moreover, the difference between the phase 1 and 2 of the project was compared. The results show that this project has a positive effect on rural labor transfer, and the net effect increases by 0.9% from the first phase to the second phase, indicating that the social and economic benefits will become more obvious with the implementation of the project. Finally, this paper proposes policy suggestions for the sustainable development of the project.