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基于CMS模型分析中国木家具对美出口增长因素

Influential Factors of Wooden Furniture Export Growth from China to the United State: An Analysis Based on CMS Model

  • 摘要: 中国于2001年加入WTO以后, 木家具贸易发展迅速, 到2006年已成为世界最大木家具出口国。中国为美国首要木家具进口国, 美国为中国木家具主要出口对象。概述入世后中国木家具对美出口贸易状况, 着重分析中国木家具对美出口规模以及产品结构, 揭示中国木家具对美出口额平稳增长的状态。运用拓展的恒定市场份额模型(CMS), 对2002—2016年中国木家具出口美国增长的成因进行分析。结果表明:中国木家具的出口增长主要依赖于美国市场需求的急剧增长; 产品结构的调整和优化也在一定程度上对木家具出口增长产生了促进作用, 但仍未能较好地适应美国木家具市场需求的结构变化; 竞争力对出口贸易增长的作用有所下降, 但是2016年我国木家具出口产品结构有所改善。为了促进中国木家具出口贸易的长期稳定发展, 应当完善信息服务与政策引导, 提升产品质量、促进产业升级、调整出口产品结构以及积极应对贸易壁垒。

     

    Abstract: After China' s joining WTO in 2001, the export trade of wooden furniture has developed significantly and China has become the largest exporter of wood furniture in the world since 2006.This paper summarizes the status of China's wooden furniture exports to the United States, and focuses on the analysis of export scale and the product structure, aiming to reveal the steady growth of China's exports of wooden furniture.The extended constant market share model (CMS) is used to analyze the causes of the growth of China's wooden furniture exports to the United States from 2002 to 2016.It points out that the export growth of wooden furniture in China depends mainly on the rapid growth of market demand in the United States.The adjustment and optimization of the product structure has also slightly promoted the growth of the export of wooden furniture, but the structure still cannot adapt to the changes of demands; the contribution of competitiveness has declined.While in 2016, the product structure of wooden furniture export in China has improved to adapt to the demand structure in the United States.In order to promote the long-term and stable development of China's wooden furniture export trade, we should improve the information service and policy guidance, improve product quality, promote industrial upgrading, adjust the export product structure and deal with trade barriers actively.

     

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