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张慧, 胡明形. 中国从“一带一路”沿线国家进口木质林产品的贸易潜力研究[J]. 北京林业大学学报(社会科学版), 2019, 18(4): 62-68. DOI: 10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2019066
引用本文: 张慧, 胡明形. 中国从“一带一路”沿线国家进口木质林产品的贸易潜力研究[J]. 北京林业大学学报(社会科学版), 2019, 18(4): 62-68. DOI: 10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2019066
ZHANG Hui, HU Ming-xing. Trade Potential of China’s Importation of Woody Forest Products from Countries along the “Belt and Road”[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University (Social Science), 2019, 18(4): 62-68. DOI: 10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2019066
Citation: ZHANG Hui, HU Ming-xing. Trade Potential of China’s Importation of Woody Forest Products from Countries along the “Belt and Road”[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University (Social Science), 2019, 18(4): 62-68. DOI: 10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2019066

中国从“一带一路”沿线国家进口木质林产品的贸易潜力研究

Trade Potential of China’s Importation of Woody Forest Products from Countries along the “Belt and Road”

  • 摘要: “一带一路”沿线国家是中国木质林产品的重要进口市场。从口岸效率、海关环境、规制环境、电子商务、金融服务等方面选取指标,采用主成分分析法构建贸易便利化水平测算指标体系,运用随机前沿引力模型对中国从“一带一路”沿线国家进口原木、锯材、木浆、纸和纸板的贸易潜力进行研究。结果表明:中国从沿线国家进口锯材、原木、纸和纸板贸易潜力较大;纸和纸板进口潜力较大的国家有印度、沙特阿拉伯、土耳其等,木浆进口潜力较大的国家有奥地利、波兰、斯洛伐克等,锯材进口潜力较大的国家有奥地利、波兰、罗马尼亚等,原木进口潜力较大的国家有波兰、罗马尼亚、斯洛伐克等;不同木质林产品进口贸易潜力的影响因素具有差异性。总体上来看,产品互补性、是否属于亚太经合组织、是否属于中国−东盟自由贸易区对实现木质林产品进口贸易潜力的影响较大。

     

    Abstract: Countries along the " Belt and Road” are important import markets for Chinese woody forest products. On the basis of selecting indicators from the port efficiency, customs environment, regulatory environment, e-commerce, and financial services, we build a trade facilitation measurement index system using principal component analysis, and use random frontier gravitational models to explore the trade potential of China’s importation of logs, sawn timber, wood pulp, paper and paperboard from countries along the Belt and Road. The results show that China has a large trade potential for importing sawn timber, logs, paper and paperboard from countries along the route. The countries with large import potential for paper and paperboard are India, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The countries with high potential for wood pulp import are Austria, Poland, and Slovakia. The countries with high import potential of sawn timber are Austria, Poland, and Romania. The countries with large import potential of logs are Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. There exist differences in the factors that influence the import trade potential of different woody forest products. On the whole, product complementarity, CAFTA (China-Asean Free Trade Area) and APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) membership have greater impacts on the realization of the import trade potential of wood-based forest products.

     

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