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秦昌才, 刘译聪, 卢玢文. 中国城市化的温室效应研究[J]. 北京林业大学学报(社会科学版), 2020, 19(1): 39-44. DOI: 10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2019105
引用本文: 秦昌才, 刘译聪, 卢玢文. 中国城市化的温室效应研究[J]. 北京林业大学学报(社会科学版), 2020, 19(1): 39-44. DOI: 10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2019105
QIN Chang-cai, LIU Yi-cong, LU Bin-wen. Greenhouse Effect of Urbanization in China[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University (Social Science), 2020, 19(1): 39-44. DOI: 10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2019105
Citation: QIN Chang-cai, LIU Yi-cong, LU Bin-wen. Greenhouse Effect of Urbanization in China[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University (Social Science), 2020, 19(1): 39-44. DOI: 10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2019105

中国城市化的温室效应研究

Greenhouse Effect of Urbanization in China

  • 摘要: 使用2003—2016年的省级面板数据,基于门限回归模型分析了我国城市化进程与温室气体排放的关系。根据门限变量人均实际GDP将30个省份内生分为4组。研究表明,4组的城市化与碳排放的关系都符合库兹涅茨曲线的倒U型形状。其中,低收入与中低收入两组的拐点对应的城市化水平分别是35.55%和44.64%。高收入组经济增长与碳排放之间呈现的是库兹涅茨曲线形状,而且处于倒U型曲线的下降阶段。此外,工业化进程与节能减排投资仍表现为对碳排放的扩张效应。因此,现阶段中国节能减排战略应遵循一定的经济和社会发展规律,考虑到不同省份的经济发展水平、发展速度以及城市化程度对碳排放的不同影响,兼顾经济发展与环境规制的双重目标。

     

    Abstract: Based on provincial panel data from 2003 to 2016, the relationship between urbanization and carbon emission in China was studied by constructing a threshold regression model. According to the threshold of real GDP per capita, 30 provinces are divided into four groups of lowest-income, lower-income, higher-income and highest-income. The results show that the relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions of four groups is in line with the Kuznets curve of inverted U shape. Among them, the inflection point corresponds to an urbanization level of 35.55% for the lowest-income group and to 44.64% for the lower-income group. For the highest-income group (more than RMB 29 040 yuan), the relationship between economic growth and carbon emission conforms to the Kuznets curve, and it is in the downward phase of an inverted U curve. In addition, the process of industrialization and investment of energy-saving and emission reduction are still promoting carbon emissions. Therefore, China’s energy conservation and emission reduction strategy should follow the law of economic and social development, considering the varying effects of the economic development level, development speed, and degree of urbanization of different provinces on carbon emissions, taking into account the dual goals of economic development and environmental regulation.

     

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