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中国进口阔叶锯材价格传导问题研究

Price Transmission of Imported Hardwood Lumber in China

  • 摘要: 中国从2015年4月起实施全面停止天然林商业性采伐政策,这一政策的实施导致国产阔叶锯材供给的下降和阔叶锯材进口依存度的提高,进而对中国进口阔叶锯材的价格传导产生影响。基于此,选取2011—2019年中国主要进口阔叶锯材(菠罗格、沙比利、白梧桐、山毛榉和红胡桃)日度价格数据进行实证研究。研究识别2015年6月1日为结构突变点,据此将时间区间划分为两个子区间,运用阈值协整模型实证分析进口阔叶锯材之间的价格传导关系。结果表明:每个价格组合在两个子区间均存在不对称价格传导关系。天然林商业性禁伐政策实施后,价格传导的不对称性进一步增强,导致木材进出口商的福利分配差距扩大,使得国内木材进口商处于更加不利的贸易地位。在此基础上,从政府和企业两个层面提出了应对价格传导不对称性的策略,以维护公平、合理的木材贸易。

     

    Abstract: Since April 2015, China has implemented the policy of completely stopping commercial logging of natural forests. The implementation of this policy has led to a decrease in the supply of domestic hardwood lumber and an increase in the import dependence of hardwood lumber, which had brought about a profound impact on the price transmission among China's imported hardwood lumber. In this context,we selected the daily price data of major imported hardwood lumber (Merbau, Sapele,Triplochiton, Beech and Okoume) in China from 2011 to 2019 for empirical study. June 1, 2015 was identified as the structural mutation point, and the time interval was divided into two sub-intervals. The price transmission relationship between imported hardwood lumber was empirically analyzed by the threshold cointegration model.The results showed that each price group had asymmetric price transmission relationship in the two sub-intervals, and the asymmetry of price transmission was further enhanced after the implementation of commercial ban policy of natural forest, which led to the widening of the welfare distribution gap of timber importers and exporters, and made Chinese timber importers in a more unfavorable trade position. On this basis, we put forward some strategies to deal with asymmetric price transmission from the perspectives of government and enterprises, so as to maintain fair and reasonable timber trade.

     

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