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对外直接投资对我国碳排放的影响基于多重中介效应模型的分析

The Impact of OFDI on China's Carbon Emissions: An Analysis Based on Multiple Mediation Effect Models

  • 摘要: 中国的碳排放具有显著的产业与空间集中性,对外直接投资会改变要素配置、影响高排放产业与高排放区域布局。中国持续扩大的对外直接投资是否促进了本国碳减排?首先,对对外直接投资影响母国碳排量的经济规模、产业结构、技术水平3个主要途径进行理论推导和分析,提出待检验的假说。其次,选取我国2005—2019年省际面板数据,建立多重中介效应模型,实证检验对外直接投资对我国碳排放影响的3种效应和综合效应,发现对外直接投资通过经济规模和技术水平中介机制,不同程度地加剧我国碳排放,通过产业结构中介机制会抑制我国碳排放;经济规模和技术水平效应大于产业结构效应,故对外直接投资最终会加剧我国碳排放。最后,基于结论提出相关建议。

     

    Abstract: China's carbon emissions have significant industrial and spatial concentration. Outward Foreign direct investment (OFDI) will change factor allocation and affect the layout of high emission industries and regions. Does the continuous expansion of OFDI promote China's carbon emission reduction? In this paper, the three main ways of OFDI affecting the carbon emission of the home country are first analyzed, namely, the economic scale, industrial structure and technical level, and the hypotheses to be tested are proposed. Secondly, selecting China's interprovincial panel data in 2005−2019, through multiple mediation effect models, empirically testing the three effects and comprehensive effects of OFDI on China's carbon emission. It is found that OFDI exacerbates the carbon emission of the home country to varying degrees through the economic scale and technical level intermediary mechanism, and the carbon emission of the home country is suppressed through the industrial structure intermediary mechanism; the economic scale and technical level effect are greater than the industrial structure effect, so China's OFDI ultimately aggravates the carbon emission of the home country. Finally, relevant policy recommendations are made based on conclusions.

     

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