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退耕还林补贴到期对农户收入的影响及其机制研究基于非农就业视角

The Impact of the Expiration of Subsidies for the Sloping Land Conversion Program on Farmer Households' Income and Its Mechanism: Based on the Perspective of Non-farm Employment

  • 摘要: 探讨首轮退耕还林补贴到期对农户收入的影响,有助于为完善退耕成果巩固长效机制、促进农户增收和实现乡村振兴总目标提供经验证据。基于宁夏、甘肃和湖南3省(区)897户农户实地调研数据,采用多期双重差分模型,考察退耕补贴到期对农户收入的影响,并从非农就业视角对其影响机制进行检验。结果表明:退耕补贴到期的冲击会促使农户参与非农就业,并实现增收,使其总收入水平未降反升,这种影响效应在退耕补贴到期当年已初步显现,并随时间推移呈现出由强到弱的趋势;异质性分析发现,退耕补贴到期对小规模退耕户收入水平的促进作用相对较弱,而对老年组农户的收入水平则会产生显著负向影响。基于此,从增强农户转移就业能力、制定差异化帮扶措施和及时出台退耕还林后续政策等方面提出建议。

     

    Abstract: Exploring the impact of the expiration of the first round subsidies for the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) on farmer households' income will help to provide empirical evidence for improving the long-term mechanism for consolidating the SLCP, increasing farmer households’ income and achieving the overall goal of rural revitalization. Based on the survey data of 897 farmer households in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Gansu and Hunan provinces, this paper uses a multi-period DID to investigate the impact of the expiration of the subsidies for the SLCP on farmer households' income, and tests its specific impact mechanism from the perspective of non-farm employment. The results show that the expiration of the subsidies for the SLCP prompts farmer households to participate in non-farm employment and increase their income, so that their total income level does not fall but rises. This effect has initially appeared in the year when the subsidies for the SLCP expire, and shows a trend from strong to weak over time. Heterogeneity analysis found that the expiration of the subsidies for the SLCP has a relatively weak effect on the income level of farmer households with small scale of SLCP, while it has a significantly negative impact on the income level of elderly farmer households. Based on test results above, this paper puts forward policy recommendations from the aspects of enhancing farmer households' ability to transfer employment, formulating differentiated assistance measures and timely issuing follow-up policies for the SLCP.

     

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