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双循环视角下中国木制品国际竞争态势分析

International Competition Situation of China's Wooden Products from the Perspective of the New Pattern of Dual Circulation

  • 摘要: 木制品制造产业是中国林业产业的重要组成部分,木制品是中国木质林产品中重要的出口产品。采用《中国林业和草原统计年鉴》、联合国商品贸易数据库等数据,利用对外依存度、国际市场占有率、显性比较优势指数、出口市场集中度、出口价格及价格弹性等指标,分析中国木制品国际竞争态势。结果显示,中国木制品基本符合双循环战略“以国内大循环为主体”的要求,但产品出口依存度依然偏高。中国木制品参与国际循环存在很大难度和风险,主要表现为:国际市场占有率处于较高水平,部分品类国际市场占有率过高,增长空间受限,出口导向策略已难以持续;与通常认为木制品是劳动密集型产品、发展中国家具有比较优势不同,中国木制品当前主要竞争对手是欧美发达国家,未来面临工业化进程较快的发展中国家挑战;出口市场集中度过高,主要依赖发达国家或地区市场,特别是美国市场;缺乏价格弹性或者国际市场占有率过高导致低价扩张出口策略已经难以为继。为此,中国木制品应转变原先的出口导向策略,更多关注国内市场开发;调整木制品出口结构,推动向高出口附加值的产品转型升级;强化工业化优势,减少对低廉劳动力成本的依赖,保障木质原料供给;实施多元化出口策略,加大对森林资源丰富、工业化基础较弱的发展中国家投资。

     

    Abstract: The wooden product manufacturing industry is an important component of China's forestry industry, and wooden products are important export products among China's wood forest products. Based on data such as the China Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbook and the UN Comtrade database, we analyze the international competition situation of China's wooden products with indicators such as dependence on foreign trade, international market share, index of revealed comparative advantage, export market concentration, export prices and price elasticity. The results show that China's wooden products basically meet the requirements of the dual circulation strategy of "taking the domestic circulation as the main body", but the export dependence of production is still high, and there are great difficulties and risks in participating in the international circulation of China's wooden products. The international market share is at a high level, with some categories having too high international market share, the growth space is limited and the export-oriented strategy is no longer sustainable. Unlike the traditional belief that wooden products are labor-intensive and that developing countries have comparative advantages, China's main competitors for wooden products are developed countries in Europe and America, and China will face challenges from developing countries with rapid industrialization in the future. Lack of price elasticity or excessively high international market share has led to the export strategy of expanding quantity at low prices unsustainable. Therefore, China's wooden products should change the original export-oriented strategy and pay more attention to domestic market development, adjusting the structure of exported wooden products and promoting the transformation and upgrading towards high export added value, strengthen the advantages of industrialization, reduce dependence on low labor costs, and ensure the supply of wooden raw materials, implement diversified export strategies and increase investment in developing countries with abundant forest resources and weak industrial foundations.

     

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