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中国南方集体林区县域发展韧性测度、差异解析及提升策略

Measurement, Differential Analysis, and Enhancement Strategies for Developmental Resilience in Collective Forest Regions of Southern China

  • 摘要: 提升森林资源富集区的风险抵御能力与韧性水平,是深化集体林权制度改革、推动乡村振兴的关键路径。文章选取了南方集体林区的412个林业大县,采用K-means聚类法将其划分为3类发展类型区。从经济−社会−资源韧性3个维度构建林区县域发展韧性指标体系,运用熵值法对2005—2021年县域发展韧性水平进行测度,并对3类林业大县的类别差异与影响因素进行分析。结果表明:①县域发展韧性整体呈上升趋势,但类型间分化显著,生态红利型(Ⅲ类)韧性指数最高,传统产业型(Ⅱ类)增长动能不足,生态−产业协同型(Ⅰ类)居中;②林区县域发展韧性水平存在明显的差异且主要来源为类间差异,呈现“Ⅲ类 > Ⅰ类 > Ⅱ类”特征,且Ⅲ类与Ⅰ类、Ⅱ类间差异尤为突出。③区域品牌建设、产业结构优化与数字金融工具应用有助于提升林区发展韧性水平。基于此,文章提出了差异化发展策略,为深化集体林权制度改革和乡村振兴提供了理论依据和实践指导。

     

    Abstract: Enhancing the risk resilience of forest-rich regions is a critical pathway to advancing the reform of the collective forest tenure system and boosting rural revitalization. This study empirically selects 412 major forestry counties in southern collective forest areas and classifies them into three development types using the K-means clustering method. A county-level development resilience evaluation index system for forest regions is constructed, encompassing three dimensions: economic resilience, social resilience, and resource resilience. The entropy method is employed to measure county-level development resilience levels over the period 2005–2021, with an analysis of type-specific differences and influencing factors across the three categories of major forestry counties.The results indicate that: ①Overall, county-level development resilience exhibits an upward trend, yet significant type-based differentiation is observed. The ecological dividend type (Type III) achieves the highest resilience index, the traditional industry type (Type II) shows insufficient growth momentum, and the ecological-industry synergy type (Type I) ranks in the middle.②Marked disparities in forest region county-level development resilience are primarily driven by inter-type differences, presenting a hierarchical pattern of “Type III > Type I > Type II,” with particularly prominent gaps between Type III and the other two types. ③Regional brand building, industrial structure optimization, and the application of digital financial tools contribute to enhancing forest region development resilience. Based on these findings, the study proposes differentiated development strategies, providing theoretical support and practical guidance for deepening the reform of the collective forest tenure system and promoting rural revitalization.

     

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