退耕还林的研究进展、理论框架与经济影响——基于全国100个退耕还林县10年的连续监测结果
Research Advances, Theory Framework and Economic Impacts of Land Conversion from Farmland back to Forestland: Based on Monitoring Results of 10 Years in 100 Sample Counties in China
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摘要: 根据中国10年的退耕还林实践及经验，回答了退耕还林政策实施以来的政策执行及影响方面的几个主要经济学争议，建立了一个经济增长和制度创新下退耕还林政策演进的理论框架，并用退耕还林10年的监测结果检验了这一演进过程。研究发现，退耕还林起源于经济增长带来的生态改善需求，由于与农村贫困紧密相连，巩固退耕还林成果目标的最终实现还要依靠经济增长以解决农村贫困问题。实施退耕还林过程中出现的问题如农户收入下降、粮食减产等，将随着经济发展、政策演进而解决。在行政监管和制度创新下，巨额退耕还林补助显著地增进了农村人口福利，减贫效果明显。由于退耕农户的私人利益与退耕还林的社会目标之间存在激励不相容，在政策放松的情况下，退耕还林生态建设目标只实现了次优，但由于更好地将农民的经济利益与国家的生态利益相结合，退耕还林的可持续性得到增强。受气候变化等因素的影响，巩固退耕还林成果还面临许多不确定性。最后，对下一步退耕还林政策研究提出了几点建议。Abstract: This paper answers several academically arguable concepts on implementation and impact of Land Conversion from Farmland back to Forestland in terms of ten years practical experiences in China. A theoretical framework is constructed to explain the policy development of Land Conversion from Farmland back to Forestland. Then it is tested by ten years monitoring data in 100 sample counties in China. Results show that Land Conversion from Farmland back to Forestland was originated from the demand of improving ecology under the economic growth. The goal of fulfilling Land Conversion from Farmland back to Forestland finally relies on economic growth to solve the poverty in rural areas. The implementing problems such as farmers income decline and crop reduction will be resolved with policy adjustment and economic development. Effect of poverty alleviation is obvious because huge amount of subsidies has been successfully delivered to farmers under powerful administration supervision and institutional innovation. Land Conversion from Farmland back to Forestland only achieves the subprime ecological goals in case of generous policy due to incentive incompatibility between farmers private benefit and public benefit. But the sustainability of Land Conversion from Farmland back to Forestland improves because farmers private benefit is combined with public ecological benefit by the project. Strengthening outcomes of ecological construction faces uncertainties due to climate change. Suggestions for future research in policy of Land Conversion from Farmland back to Forestland are proposed.
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