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刘学, 胡明形. 中国木质林产品进口波动特征及影响因素[J]. 北京林业大学学报(社会科学版), 2022, 21(1): 50-55. DOI: 10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021230
引用本文: 刘学, 胡明形. 中国木质林产品进口波动特征及影响因素[J]. 北京林业大学学报(社会科学版), 2022, 21(1): 50-55. DOI: 10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021230
Liu Xue, Hu Mingxing. Fluctuation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of China's Wood Forest Products Import[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University (Social Science), 2022, 21(1): 50-55. DOI: 10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021230
Citation: Liu Xue, Hu Mingxing. Fluctuation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of China's Wood Forest Products Import[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University (Social Science), 2022, 21(1): 50-55. DOI: 10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021230

中国木质林产品进口波动特征及影响因素

Fluctuation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of China's Wood Forest Products Import

  • 摘要: 中国是世界木质林产品贸易大国。木质林产品进口大幅波动对国内外林产品市场、国内林产工业发展都会带来不利影响。研究中国木质林产品进口波动特征及影响因素对加强林产品进口管理具有重要意义。基于1992—2020年中国木质林产品进口贸易数据,在对木质林产品进口波动周期识别和特征分析的基础上,构建ARDL模型,从需求和供给的角度分析中国木质林产品进口波动的影响因素,为制定相应政策提供理论依据。结果表明:1992—2020年中国木质林产品进口波动呈现8个波动周期,周期长度约3年;波动的抗衰退能力和稳定性均有所增强;需求侧建筑业产值,供给侧木材产量、汇率和原木进口价格的波动在长短期内对中国木质林产品进口贸易波动均有显著影响。

     

    Abstract: China is a major trading country of wood forest products in the world. The large fluctuation of wood forest products imports will bring adverse effects on domestic and inter national forest products markets and the development of domestic forest products industry. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of China's wood forest products import in order to strengthen the import management of wood forest products and promote the healthy development of China's wood forest products import trade. Based on the data of China's import trade of wood forest products from 1992 to 2020, this paper analyzes the fluctuation cycle and characteristics of wood forest products, constructs an ARDL model to analyze the factors influencing China's import trade fluctuation of woody forest products from the perspective of demand and supply, so as to provide basis for making corresponding policies and taking reasonable measures. The results show that the fluctuation of China's wood forest products import from 1992 to 2020 presents eight cycles, with each cycle length about three years. The expansion ability of China's wood forest products import trade is obviously weakened, but the overall growth level is improving, and the anti-recession ability and stability of fluctuation are enhanced. The fluctuation of demand side construction output value, supply side timber output, exchange rate and log import price have significant effects on the fluctuation of China's wood forest products import trade in the long and short term.

     

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