Influential Factors of Wooden Furniture Export Growth from China to the United State: An Analysis Based on CMS Model
-
摘要: 中国于2001年加入WTO以后, 木家具贸易发展迅速, 到2006年已成为世界最大木家具出口国。中国为美国首要木家具进口国, 美国为中国木家具主要出口对象。概述入世后中国木家具对美出口贸易状况, 着重分析中国木家具对美出口规模以及产品结构, 揭示中国木家具对美出口额平稳增长的状态。运用拓展的恒定市场份额模型(CMS), 对2002—2016年中国木家具出口美国增长的成因进行分析。结果表明:中国木家具的出口增长主要依赖于美国市场需求的急剧增长; 产品结构的调整和优化也在一定程度上对木家具出口增长产生了促进作用, 但仍未能较好地适应美国木家具市场需求的结构变化; 竞争力对出口贸易增长的作用有所下降, 但是2016年我国木家具出口产品结构有所改善。为了促进中国木家具出口贸易的长期稳定发展, 应当完善信息服务与政策引导, 提升产品质量、促进产业升级、调整出口产品结构以及积极应对贸易壁垒。Abstract: After China' s joining WTO in 2001, the export trade of wooden furniture has developed significantly and China has become the largest exporter of wood furniture in the world since 2006.This paper summarizes the status of China's wooden furniture exports to the United States, and focuses on the analysis of export scale and the product structure, aiming to reveal the steady growth of China's exports of wooden furniture.The extended constant market share model (CMS) is used to analyze the causes of the growth of China's wooden furniture exports to the United States from 2002 to 2016.It points out that the export growth of wooden furniture in China depends mainly on the rapid growth of market demand in the United States.The adjustment and optimization of the product structure has also slightly promoted the growth of the export of wooden furniture, but the structure still cannot adapt to the changes of demands; the contribution of competitiveness has declined.While in 2016, the product structure of wooden furniture export in China has improved to adapt to the demand structure in the United States.In order to promote the long-term and stable development of China's wooden furniture export trade, we should improve the information service and policy guidance, improve product quality, promote industrial upgrading, adjust the export product structure and deal with trade barriers actively.
-
-
[1] 奉钦亮, 程宝栋.木制家具产业区域经济竞争力实证研究[J].北京林业大学学报(社会科学版), 2011, 10(4):72-75. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-6116.2011.04.013 [2] 林伟明, 戴永务.木制家具产业国际竞争力影响因素的实证研究[J].东南学术, 2014(6):135-143. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=dnxs201406018 [3] 韩笑.中国木制家具产业国际竞争力实证分析[D].北京: 北京林业大学, 2015. [4] 卢茜, 宋维明.中美木家具贸易反倾销问题思考[J].林业经济, 2008(3):8-13. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=26805296 [5] 林熙.中国家具出口美国遭遇贸易壁垒的现状及对策研究[J].市场论坛, 2015(4):9-12. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-8777.2015.04.004 [6] 李兰君.美对华家具出口反倾销调查的问题研究[D].北京: 首都经济贸易大学, 2015. [7] 曹康.美国次贷危机对中国家具出口的影响与对策分析[J].北方经济, 2008(2):78-79. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=bfjj200804035 [8] AHMADI-ESFAHANI F Z.Constant market shares analysis: uses, limitations and prospects [J].The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2006, 50: 510-526. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8489.2006.00364.x
[9] WIDODO T.Market dynamics in the EU, NAFTA, North East Asia and ASEAN: the method of constant market shares (CMS) analysis[J].Journal of Economic Integration, 2010, 25 (3): 480-500. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=ab1b179633e3338012f672ac3ebfaad2&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
[10] JIMÉNEZ N, MARTÍN E.A constant market share analysis of the EURO area in the period 1994-2007 [J].Economic Bulletin, 2010, 1:1-16. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=ee8a4a61ca9a5f2ee4b3dcac07f2ab58&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
[11] SOUZA S N, ANGELO H, ALMEIDA A N, et al. Competitiveness of Brazilian tropical wood on the international market[J].Floresta e Ambiente, 2018, 25(1):1-8. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=bf561362e7afeb5601f66e9c45fd2655&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
[12] DIETER M, ENGLERT H.Competitiveness in the global forest industry sector: an empirical study with special emphasis on Germany[J].European Journal of Forest Research, 2007, 7: 401-412. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=fa7b8f4188e8b0a0628d0969bf7d200f&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
[13] 顾晓燕, 聂影.基于CMS模型的中国木质林产品出口增长因素分析[J].世界林业研究, 2010, 23(1):76-80. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=sjlyyj201001014 [14] 李冉, 宋维明.中国人造板出口增长因素分析[J].国际经贸探索, 2013, 29(11):15-24. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=gjjmts201311002 [15] 缪东玲, 刘晔, 程宝栋.中国木地板出口增长因素的实证分析———基于CMS模型[J].北京林业大学学报(社会科学版), 2015, 14(3):79-85. http://sheke.bjfu.edu.cn/article/id/9149 [16] 李萍.中国对金砖国家出口贸易增长动态波动研究———基于CMS模型的因素分解及测算[J].国际贸易问题, 2015 (5): 82-91. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=gjmywt201505009 [17] 刘春鹏, 肖海峰.巴西农产品出口波动的影响因素分析———基于恒定市场份额模型[J].国际经贸探索, 2017, 33 (3):4-13. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=671656692 [18] 杨逢珉, 李晶.中国对日农产品出口的增长因素研究———基于CMS模型的实证分析[J].国际商务研究, 2017(6):38-47. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-1894.2017.06.004 -
期刊类型引用(6)
1. 刘学，胡明形. 中国木质林产品进口波动特征及影响因素. 北京林业大学学报(社会科学版). 2022(01): 50-55 . 
百度学术
2. 韩爽，伍海泉，田刚. 中国与越南木质家具出口波动特征的对比——以2004—2018年两国的出口数据为例. 东北林业大学学报. 2021(02): 78-82+88 . 百度学术
3. 田刚，葛宁宁. 中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易波动原因分析. 林业经济问题. 2021(01): 42-50 . 百度学术
4. 林萌，曹玉昆. 中国木质家具国内外市场需求趋势研究——基于差分整合自回归移动平均模型的应用. 林业经济. 2020(06): 33-42 . 百度学术
5. 周路. 中国木质家具对美国出口贸易特征及对策分析. 对外经贸. 2020(12): 67-70 . 百度学术
6. 张丽媛，曹旭平. 中国木质林产品出口波动特征及成因分析. 林业经济问题. 2018(06): 15-20+100 . 百度学术
其他类型引用(5)
下载:
计量
- 文章访问数: 1085
- HTML全文浏览量: 257
- PDF下载量: 24
- 被引次数: 11
