The Value Evaluation Model of Forestry Investment Projects Based on Real Options
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摘要: 林业投资项目具有典型的收益不确定性、投资不可逆性、自然增值性和管理灵活性等特点, 需要选择合理适用的决策方法。传统的林业投资项目评估大多采用净现值法, 忽视了林业投资项目的期权特性, 容易引起决策的偏差和错误的判断。从实物期权的视角, 分析了林业投资项目的实物期权特性, 包括扩张、缩小、放弃期权以及递延期权。基于二叉树理论构建了林业投资项目的实物期权价值评价模型, 并且运用实例进行了验证, 对林业项目投资的不同阶段分别进行研究。实例证明, 基于实物期权模型的林业投资项目决策更有科学性。Abstract: Uncertainty of return, investment irreversibility, natural appreciation and management flexibility are typical characteristics of forestry investment projects; therefore, a reasonable and applicable decision-making method is necessary in a forestry investment project. The net present value (NPV) is widely applied in traditional evaluation of investment projects, but this method ignores options, which easily leads to inaccurate decision and wrong judgement. In this paper, we analyze the real options in forestry investment projects, including expanding options, narrowing options, abandoning options and deferring options. Then we build a real option value evaluation model based on binomial tree options pricing model, and verify the model in a real project, in which there exist different options in different stages. It is proven that the real option evaluation model is much more feasible and more accurate in forestry investment projects.
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